VoteWatch post-elections analysis

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Presentation by Doru Frantescu of VoteWatch Europe at Europe Decides / VoteWatch Europe event on Monday 26 May
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  • The new EP balance of power: policy implications for next five years Doru Frantescu, Policy Director and Co-founder, VoteWatch Europe How did Europe vote… and what does it mean for EU policy? The Microsoft Centre, Brussels, 26 May 2014
  • What impact on EP positions (and EU policy)? 2
  • 3 Impact assessment of EP elections on 2014-19 EU policy Main outcome • Less support for strengthening the EU powers (institutions, agencies, budget); • but a strong pro-European majority (‘super-grand’ coalition) stays on.
  • 4 Possible coalitions (%) Old EP New EP Difference EPP + S&D + ALDE 72.2 63.5 -8.7 EPP + S&D 61.4 53.1 -8.2 Old EP New EP Difference EFD + NI + EAF 8.4 16.2 +7.9 ECR + EFD + EAF + NI 15.8 22.5 +6.7 (ECR + EFD + EAF + NI) + GUE 20.4 29.6 +9.2 PRO ANTI
  • 5 Possible coalitions (%) Centre-right Centre-left Old EP New EP Difference EPP+ALDE 46.6 38.7 -7.9 EPP+ALDE+ECR 54.0 45.0 -9.0 Old EP New EP Difference S&D + G/EFA + GUE-NGL 37.6 38.7 +1.2 (S&D + G/EFA + GUE-NGL) + ALDE 48.4 49.1 +0.7
  • 6 Impact assessment of EP elections on 2014-19 EU policy Possible scenarios Economy • Less budget consolidation • More public spending • Push for tax harmonization? • More regulation of the financial sector
  • 7 Impact assessment of EP elections on 2014-19 EU policy Possible scenarios Employment • More social indicators followed through the European Semester • Push for re-correlation of salaries with inflation rather than productivity • Regulations more labour-oriented (working time and work conditions)
  • 8 Impact assessment of EP elections on 2014-19 EU policy Possible scenarios Trade and internal market • Lengthier and more difficult negotiations on TTIP • More questioning of the strengthening of internal market for services
  • 9 Impact assessment of EP elections on 2014-19 EU policy Possible scenarios Energy • Nuclear power will continue to be seen as playing a key role • Shale gas and oil exploration – EP majority likely positive • Support for pan-EU energy infrastructure
  • 10 Impact assessment of EP elections on 2014-19 EU policy Possible scenarios Environment • Step-by-step approach towards C02 reduction and climate targets? • Re-industrialization? Uncertain
  • 11 Impact assessment of EP elections on 2014-19 EU policy Possible scenarios Civil liberties • More barriers to migration?
  • Doru Frantescu, Policy Director and Co-founder doru@votewatcheurope.eu www.votewatch.eu @VoteWatchEurope /VoteWatchEurope
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