Why It's Morning in Venture Capital

Investor Relations

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  • It’s morning in VC •  Disruption in our industry. •  What does it mean for VCs & LPs?
  • 2 Critics of venture capital returns fall prey to rearview mirror analysis
  • Let’s start with some facts that everybody knows 3
  • 1 The dot-com boom caused too much LP money to come into VC Source: Prequin. Includes all LP investment into US VC funds with IT & Digital Media focus. Excludes funds with hardware & nanotech focus, non-$USD funds, funds with undisclosed amounts, & funds without first close 4 $3 $5 $7 $12 $31 $50 $26 $8 $6 $13 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Commitments from LPs to U.S. Tech VC funds ($B)
  • This in turn caused too many VCs to enter the market Source: Prequin. Includes all LP investment into US VC funds with IT & Digital Media focus. Excludes funds with hardware & nanotech focus, non-$USD funds, funds with undisclosed amounts, & funds without first close 5 33 38 66 77 109 163 90 67 49 68 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 No. of funds raised by U.S. Tech VC firms 2
  • As a result, the startup ecosystem became over-capitalized Source: PWC/NVCA MoneyTree Report6 $250 $550 $628 $1,435 $7,465 $11,232 $1,150 $328 $400 $482 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 First institutional money raised by Internet Co's ($M) 3
  • 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Exit values of VC backed co's ($Bn) M&A trade sales IPOs 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 No. of VC backed co. exits M&A trade sales IPOs The over-investment was followed by a period of greatly reduced exits Source: Thomson Reuters7 $42 $27 $178 $142 $40 $32 $38 $92 273 268 611 537 404 392 369 503 4
  • The math is simple … 8 LP money # of VCs Exits (#, value) VC fundings (deals, size, value) Poor performing asset class 1999-2007 DUH.=
  • And as we know, the hangover from this over-investment lasted a decade 9
  • Will the road ahead be the same? Let’s look at the facts … 10
  • There are 50x more Internet users today (33% of world population) Sources: U.S. Bureau of the Census, World Bank. As of Q2 June 2012.11 44 411 1,019 2,019 2,406 1995 2000 2005 2010 2012 World Internet users (M) 1
  • NOW1995 Online speeds are over 180x faster Source: Akamai ‘s State of the Internet Q1 201412 56 Kbps modems 10.5 Mbps average U.S. Internet connection speed! 2
  • People are mobile: connected everywhere, all the time Source: 2014 Statista forecasts13 •  Personal •  Location aware •  At point of purchase US smartphone users 164m Up 13.4% from 2013 US tablet users 119m Up 20.5% from 2013 3
  • Everybody is socially connected driving viral growth at faster rates 14 Monthly active users255M Monthly active users1.3B+ Global registered members300M+ Hours of video watched each month by 1B+ users6B+ 4
  • We all have credit cards on file with a single click to purchase Sources: eMarketer, WSJ15 Global ecommerce spend $1.5 trillion1 billion Digital shoppers worldwide The Apple app ecosystem alone estimated to be $35 billion in 2014 (from $0 in 2008) 5
  • •  Education (remote learning) •  Healthcare (doc on demand) •  Defense (drones) Economic pressures + improved telepresence will transform industries such as … 16 6
  • Industry right sized to pre dot-com levels Source: Prequin. Includes all LP investment into US VC funds with IT & Digital Media focus. Excludes funds with hardware & nanotech focus, non-$USD funds, funds with undisclosed amounts, & funds without first close 17 $3 $50 $16 $9 $16 1995 2000 2005 2010 2012 Commitments from LPs to U.S. Tech VC funds ($B) 33 163 74 50 65 1995 2000 2005 2010 2012 No. of funds raised by U.S. Tech VC firms 7
  • In fact, FLAG Capital estimates the number of active tech VCs is less than 100 Source: Thomson Venture Economics, NVCA Yearbook 2013, FLAG internal analysis18 441 119 75 86 2000 2005 2010 2012 Number of active U.S. VC firms Via FLAG Capital - “active” defined as making at least $1 million in venture investments per quarter for 4 quarters in a given year
  • If Anything: It’s Morning in Venture Capital 19
  • Think about it … 20 50x users, 180x bandwidth, 6x time spent online Mobile, social, credit-card ready LP money, active VCs Global economic pressure Amazing opportunity set for VC for 2010-2020 DUH.=
  • But our industry has clearly changed. VCs (and LPs) can’t be complacent. 21
  • Entrepreneurs need less capital to start a company 22 $5m $500k $50k $5k 1995 2005 2010 2014 Technology Drivers Open Source Cloud + AWS Developers Start Companies 99% reduction 1
  • •  Angels •  Incubators / Accelerators •  Seed funds •  VCs •  Crowdsourcing With less $$ required there are many more sources from which to raise money 23 2
  • Entrepreneurs expect much more transparency 24 Fred Wilson AVC Chris Dixon Chris Dixon Brad Feld Feld Thoughts Mark Suster Both Sides of the Table Ben Horowitz ben‘s blog Josh Kopelman Redeye VC Bryce Roberts Bryce Dot VC Jeff Bussgang Seeing Both Sides Bill Gurley Above the Crowd Manu Kumar K9 Ventures 3
  • How important is blogging / transparency? 52% say critical to VC decision. 96% prefer it Source: Upfront Ventures Survey data25 96% 52% 44% 4% Essential or important Nice to have Negative, not wanted
  • •  Servers •  Routers The plumbing & infrastructure phase was & is dominated by Silicon Valley 26 •  Switches •  Databases •  Browsers •  Search 4
  • But increasingly there have been regional successes in monetizing the web at a higher layer (the three C’s) 27 •  Content •  Commerce •  Communications 4
  • Not surprisingly some of the best performing new funds are not from traditional strongholds 28
  • Seed Stage Early Stage Later Stage The LP market (led by Cendana Capital) has started to recognize the value of the seed stage VC market 29 $50M $150-300M $500M+ Many Great Emerging VC Funds 5
  • But LP money has largely becoming concentrated in Growth VC funds (> $500m) *Q1 2014. Source; Q2 2014 PitchBook US Venture Industry Data Sheet30 5 39% 35% 43% 67% 59% 26% 66% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014* Share of VC $ funds raised > $500M Represents only 8% of total funds raised
  • This bifurcation has led to a gap in the traditional VC A/B round market 31 Seed Stage Early Stage Later Stage $50M $150-300M $500M+ Market Gap 5
  • Yet in the past 30 years, Traditional Early- Stage VC has out-performed other stages 2/3 of the time Source: Cambridge Associates Includes: data from 1,470 funds from 1981-201232 9% 25% 66% Multi-stage Late-stage Early-stage VC Annual Fund Performance
  • Big market shifts: the VC industry is changing 33 Funding sources Transparency / operation experience New competitive dynamics in VC = Capital to start, age of founders Regional successes (tech & VC) Concentration of LPs in “mega-funds”
  • How are modern VCs differentiating? Providing more value. 34
  • Entrepreneurs want thought leadership as well as operational experience Source: Upfront Ventures Survey data35 Important or very important when choosing a VC 34% 47% 49% 52% 60% 67% 68% 70% 70% 87% 87% Location Name / firm achievement Access to portfolio network Transparency (blog or public voice / opinion) Recruiting support Ability to help with access to customers M&A support Ability to attract other VCs Ability to help with marketing your company Industry experience / thought leadership Operational experience Less Important 1
  • 36 Seller Buyer •  Distributors •  Physical locations •  Brokers Cutting Out VCs encourage all of their portfolio companies to “go direct” to consumers
  • •  Blogging •  Social media •  Video •  Teaching Modern VCs have used the same “direct to customer” tools for competitive advantage 37 Direct to our customer (entrepreneurs) Thought leadership > old boys club More effective for volume 2
  • •  Boards meet 6-8 times per year •  Mentor, decide key issues & replace CEO if necessary •  While boards play a vital role, it’s clear they can’t solve all problems The old VC model relied mostly on “VC knows best” & board interaction 38
  • •  More time •  Closer in skills •  Recent methods We know that kids learn much better from peers than parents 39
  • •  CEO summits •  Expert universities •  Business support •  Tools •  Incentives New VC “platforms” recognize the importance of peer learning, participation 40 Some Best in Class Platforms 3
  • •  CEO & CTO summits •  Market research / internship projects •  Stock swaps •  Content library •  Easy access to “Second Round Capital”41
  • 42 •  CEO workshops •  University style hands-on learning from key industry figures •  Video sessions for further use
  • 43 Leading funds putting big investments into operational support staff Some Best in Class Services 4
  • In-house tools & resources •  Recruiting •  PR •  Designers, engineers & execs •  Business development 44
  • •  Hands-on support teams for design, recruiting, marketing & engineering •  Startup Lab workshops •  Events / networking conferences 45
  • 46 •  Accounting Services •  Education •  Blogging / Marketing Services •  Inside Sales •  Recruiting •  Market Research Example Services Provided
  • 47 One of most important differentiators is domain knowledge & providing industry access for deals Some Best in Class Industry Networks 5
  • •  Best domain knowledge & relationships in ad sector •  CEO summits with key industry players •  Ad Agency Days where portfolio presents to buyers of Ad Tech48
  • •  Holds “Future of TV” summits with key industry leaders •  Blog & provide thought leadership on: Online Video, Ad Tech, Mobile & SaaS •  Strategic LPs / Portfolio meetings49
  • •  Took an early market position on “big data” (IA = information arbitrage) •  Deep financial services relationships / knowledge •  Executive relations at financial data companies like Reuters, Bloomberg50
  • In summary: The market expects more than money. VCs can’t be stock pickers. They must invest in platforms not their pocketbooks. 51 Operational experience Thought leadership & transparency Peer-to-Peer platforms Operational support on recruiting, accounting, biz dev, design Industry insights / relationships
  • We’re inspired by what we see our colleagues in the industry doing. We believe … Thank You It’s Morning in Venture Capital
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  • It’s morning in VC •  Disruption in our industry. •  What does it mean for VCs & LPs?
  • 2 Critics of venture capital returns fall prey to rearview mirror analysis
  • Let’s start with some facts that everybody knows 3
  • 1 The dot-com boom caused too much LP money to come into VC Source: Prequin. Includes all LP investment into US VC funds with IT & Digital Media focus. Excludes funds with hardware & nanotech focus, non-$USD funds, funds with undisclosed amounts, & funds without first close 4 $3 $5 $7 $12 $31 $50 $26 $8 $6 $13 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Commitments from LPs to U.S. Tech VC funds ($B)
  • This in turn caused too many VCs to enter the market Source: Prequin. Includes all LP investment into US VC funds with IT & Digital Media focus. Excludes funds with hardware & nanotech focus, non-$USD funds, funds with undisclosed amounts, & funds without first close 5 33 38 66 77 109 163 90 67 49 68 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 No. of funds raised by U.S. Tech VC firms 2
  • As a result, the startup ecosystem became over-capitalized Source: PWC/NVCA MoneyTree Report6 $250 $550 $628 $1,435 $7,465 $11,232 $1,150 $328 $400 $482 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 First institutional money raised by Internet Co's ($M) 3
  • 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Exit values of VC backed co's ($Bn) M&A trade sales IPOs 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 No. of VC backed co. exits M&A trade sales IPOs The over-investment was followed by a period of greatly reduced exits Source: Thomson Reuters7 $42 $27 $178 $142 $40 $32 $38 $92 273 268 611 537 404 392 369 503 4
  • The math is simple … 8 LP money # of VCs Exits (#, value) VC fundings (deals, size, value) Poor performing asset class 1999-2007 DUH.=
  • And as we know, the hangover from this over-investment lasted a decade 9
  • Will the road ahead be the same? Let’s look at the facts … 10
  • There are 50x more Internet users today (33% of world population) Sources: U.S. Bureau of the Census, World Bank. As of Q2 June 2012.11 44 411 1,019 2,019 2,406 1995 2000 2005 2010 2012 World Internet users (M) 1
  • NOW1995 Online speeds are over 180x faster Source: Akamai ‘s State of the Internet Q1 201412 56 Kbps modems 10.5 Mbps average U.S. Internet connection speed! 2
  • People are mobile: connected everywhere, all the time Source: 2014 Statista forecasts13 •  Personal •  Location aware •  At point of purchase US smartphone users 164m Up 13.4% from 2013 US tablet users 119m Up 20.5% from 2013 3
  • Everybody is socially connected driving viral growth at faster rates 14 Monthly active users255M Monthly active users1.3B+ Global registered members300M+ Hours of video watched each month by 1B+ users6B+ 4
  • We all have credit cards on file with a single click to purchase Sources: eMarketer, WSJ15 Global ecommerce spend $1.5 trillion1 billion Digital shoppers worldwide The Apple app ecosystem alone estimated to be $35 billion in 2014 (from $0 in 2008) 5
  • •  Education (remote learning) •  Healthcare (doc on demand) •  Defense (drones) Economic pressures + improved telepresence will transform industries such as … 16 6
  • Industry right sized to pre dot-com levels Source: Prequin. Includes all LP investment into US VC funds with IT & Digital Media focus. Excludes funds with hardware & nanotech focus, non-$USD funds, funds with undisclosed amounts, & funds without first close 17 $3 $50 $16 $9 $16 1995 2000 2005 2010 2012 Commitments from LPs to U.S. Tech VC funds ($B) 33 163 74 50 65 1995 2000 2005 2010 2012 No. of funds raised by U.S. Tech VC firms 7
  • In fact, FLAG Capital estimates the number of active tech VCs is less than 100 Source: Thomson Venture Economics, NVCA Yearbook 2013, FLAG internal analysis18 441 119 75 86 2000 2005 2010 2012 Number of active U.S. VC firms Via FLAG Capital - “active” defined as making at least $1 million in venture investments per quarter for 4 quarters in a given year
  • If Anything: It’s Morning in Venture Capital 19
  • Think about it … 20 50x users, 180x bandwidth, 6x time spent online Mobile, social, credit-card ready LP money, active VCs Global economic pressure Amazing opportunity set for VC for 2010-2020 DUH.=
  • But our industry has clearly changed. VCs (and LPs) can’t be complacent. 21
  • Entrepreneurs need less capital to start a company 22 $5m $500k $50k $5k 1995 2005 2010 2014 Technology Drivers Open Source Cloud + AWS Developers Start Companies 99% reduction 1
  • •  Angels •  Incubators / Accelerators •  Seed funds •  VCs •  Crowdsourcing With less $$ required there are many more sources from which to raise money 23 2
  • Entrepreneurs expect much more transparency 24 Fred Wilson AVC Chris Dixon Chris Dixon Brad Feld Feld Thoughts Mark Suster Both Sides of the Table Ben Horowitz ben‘s blog Josh Kopelman Redeye VC Bryce Roberts Bryce Dot VC Jeff Bussgang Seeing Both Sides Bill Gurley Above the Crowd Manu Kumar K9 Ventures 3
  • How important is blogging / transparency? 52% say critical to VC decision. 96% prefer it Source: Upfront Ventures Survey data25 96% 52% 44% 4% Essential or important Nice to have Negative, not wanted
  • •  Servers •  Routers The plumbing & infrastructure phase was & is dominated by Silicon Valley 26 •  Switches •  Databases •  Browsers •  Search 4
  • But increasingly there have been regional successes in monetizing the web at a higher layer (the three C’s) 27 •  Content •  Commerce •  Communications 4
  • Not surprisingly some of the best performing new funds are not from traditional strongholds 28
  • Seed Stage Early Stage Later Stage The LP market (led by Cendana Capital) has started to recognize the value of the seed stage VC market 29 $50M $150-300M $500M+ Many Great Emerging VC Funds 5
  • But LP money has largely becoming concentrated in Growth VC funds (> $500m) *Q1 2014. Source; Q2 2014 PitchBook US Venture Industry Data Sheet30 5 39% 35% 43% 67% 59% 26% 66% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014* Share of VC $ funds raised > $500M Represents only 8% of total funds raised
  • This bifurcation has led to a gap in the traditional VC A/B round market 31 Seed Stage Early Stage Later Stage $50M $150-300M $500M+ Market Gap 5
  • Yet in the past 30 years, Traditional Early- Stage VC has out-performed other stages 2/3 of the time Source: Cambridge Associates Includes: data from 1,470 funds from 1981-201232 9% 25% 66% Multi-stage Late-stage Early-stage VC Annual Fund Performance
  • Big market shifts: the VC industry is changing 33 Funding sources Transparency / operation experience New competitive dynamics in VC = Capital to start, age of founders Regional successes (tech & VC) Concentration of LPs in “mega-funds”
  • How are modern VCs differentiating? Providing more value. 34
  • Entrepreneurs want thought leadership as well as operational experience Source: Upfront Ventures Survey data35 Important or very important when choosing a VC 34% 47% 49% 52% 60% 67% 68% 70% 70% 87% 87% Location Name / firm achievement Access to portfolio network Transparency (blog or public voice / opinion) Recruiting support Ability to help with access to customers M&A support Ability to attract other VCs Ability to help with marketing your company Industry experience / thought leadership Operational experience Less Important 1
  • 36 Seller Buyer •  Distributors •  Physical locations •  Brokers Cutting Out VCs encourage all of their portfolio companies to “go direct” to consumers
  • •  Blogging •  Social media •  Video •  Teaching Modern VCs have used the same “direct to customer” tools for competitive advantage 37 Direct to our customer (entrepreneurs) Thought leadership > old boys club More effective for volume 2
  • •  Boards meet 6-8 times per year •  Mentor, decide key issues & replace CEO if necessary •  While boards play a vital role, it’s clear they can’t solve all problems The old VC model relied mostly on “VC knows best” & board interaction 38
  • •  More time •  Closer in skills •  Recent methods We know that kids learn much better from peers than parents 39
  • •  CEO summits •  Expert universities •  Business support •  Tools •  Incentives New VC “platforms” recognize the importance of peer learning, participation 40 Some Best in Class Platforms 3
  • •  CEO & CTO summits •  Market research / internship projects •  Stock swaps •  Content library •  Easy access to “Second Round Capital”41
  • 42 •  CEO workshops •  University style hands-on learning from key industry figures •  Video sessions for further use
  • 43 Leading funds putting big investments into operational support staff Some Best in Class Services 4
  • In-house tools & resources •  Recruiting •  PR •  Designers, engineers & execs •  Business development 44
  • •  Hands-on support teams for design, recruiting, marketing & engineering •  Startup Lab workshops •  Events / networking conferences 45
  • 46 •  Accounting Services •  Education •  Blogging / Marketing Services •  Inside Sales •  Recruiting •  Market Research Example Services Provided
  • 47 One of most important differentiators is domain knowledge & providing industry access for deals Some Best in Class Industry Networks 5
  • •  Best domain knowledge & relationships in ad sector •  CEO summits with key industry players •  Ad Agency Days where portfolio presents to buyers of Ad Tech48
  • •  Holds “Future of TV” summits with key industry leaders •  Blog & provide thought leadership on: Online Video, Ad Tech, Mobile & SaaS •  Strategic LPs / Portfolio meetings49
  • •  Took an early market position on “big data” (IA = information arbitrage) •  Deep financial services relationships / knowledge •  Executive relations at financial data companies like Reuters, Bloomberg50
  • In summary: The market expects more than money. VCs can’t be stock pickers. They must invest in platforms not their pocketbooks. 51 Operational experience Thought leadership & transparency Peer-to-Peer platforms Operational support on recruiting, accounting, biz dev, design Industry insights / relationships
  • We’re inspired by what we see our colleagues in the industry doing. We believe … Thank You It’s Morning in Venture Capital
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