Hormegeddon: How Too Much Of A Good Thing Leads To Disaster

Leadership & Management

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Adapted from the book "Hormegeddon: How Too Much Of A Good Thing Leads To Disaster" by Bill Bonner

http://www.amazon.com/Hormegeddon-Much-Thing-Leads-Disaster/dp/0990359530/





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  • 1. HORMEGEDDONHOW TOO MUCH OF A GOOD THING LEADS TO DISASTERBILL BONNER
  • 2. HISTORY IS A LONG TALE OF THINGS THAT WENT FUBARD E B A C L E S , D I S A S T E R S , A N D C A T A S T R O P H E SYou can learn about these disasters by reading history. But be careful. Histories are narratives.THEY ARE STORIES.
  • 3. WE NEVER KNOW WHATWE ARE TALKING ABOUT.— E N G L I S H P H I L O S O P H E R K A R L P O P P E R“”
  • 4. The alternative—silence—isn’t much fun though.Instead, we stretch and strain to understand thingsWE CAN NEVER REALLY HOPE TO UNDERSTAND AT ALL.
  • 5. THE BEST WE CAN DO IS TRY TOCATCH TINY GLIMPSES OF THINGSTHAT ARE TRUE ENOUGH
  • 6. O N E O F T H E S E T H I N G S I S T H E P H E N O M E N O N C A L L E DHORMEGEDDON
  • 7. Hormegeddon is what happens when a small dose of something produces a favorable result,B U T I F Y O U I N C R E A S E T H E D O S A G E ,THE RESULTS ARE A DISASTER.
  • 8. First described in 1888, it was later givena name by scientists in 1943: “hormesis.”NASSIM TALEB, AUTHOR OF THE BLACK SWAN AND ANTIFRAGILE, SUGGESTEDAPPLYING THE TERM BEYOND ITS ORIGINAL APPLICATION, PHARMACOLOGY.Hormegeddon does just that.
  • 9. DISASTERS COME IN MANY FORMS,FROM EPIDEMICS TO EARTHQUAKES AND TORNADOES.B U T H O R M E G E D D O N A P P L I E S T OA N O T H E R K I N D O F D I S A S T E R —THOSE THAT ARE MAN-MADE
  • 10. The problem is, these disasters cannot bestopped by smart people with good intentions,BECAUSE THOSE EXACT PEOPLE ARE THE ONES WHO CAUSE THESE DISASTERS IN THE FIRST PLACE.They all have the same characteristics:
  • 11. 1T H E Y A R E T H E P R O D U C T O F“RATIONAL THINKING.”THINK BAILOUTS FOR BANKERS AND SUBSIDIES FOR CORN.
  • 12. 2THEY ARE THE RESULTS OF LARGESCALE PLANNING, USUALLY BACKEDBY THE GOVERNMENT.
  • 13. 3T H E F E E D B A C K L O O P I S TWISTED.
  • 14. 4T Y P I C A L L Y W H E N Y O U M A K E A M I S T A K EYOU FEEL THE PAIN OF ADVERSE CONSEQUENCES,L I K E WHEN YOU PUT YOUR HAND TO THE S TOV E .
  • 15. 5Man-made disasters twist that loop and put the pain onto someone else,LEAVING THOSE WHO MADE THE ORIGINAL BAD CHOICESFREE OF CONSEQUENCESand free to continue their bad behavior.
  • 16. 6T H E Y C R E A T E T H E I R O W NSUPPORT SYSTEMS.
  • 17. 7RATHER THAN SELF-LIMITING,MAN-MADE DISASTERS ARE SELF-PERPETUATING.THEY CREATE “ZOMBIES”, PEOPLE WHO GAIN FROM WEALTH-DESTROYING ACTIVITIES.
  • 18. We can see the effect of Hormegeddon in someof the largest man-made disasters in history —from the outbreak of WWII to the 21st century War on Terror,FROM THE GREAT RECESSION TO THE SOVEREIGN DEBT CRISIS.
  • 19. WE CAN ALSO SEE THE EFFECTS OF HORMEGEDDON IN OUR PERSONAL LIVES.I T O C C U R S W H E N T H E M A R G I N A L R E T U R N S I N A NI N V E S T M E N T Y O U M A K E S I N K S B E L O W Z E R O .
  • 20. L i k e t h e p o p u l a r C r o s s f i t w o r k o u t r o u t i n e , w h i c h c a np r o v e f a t a l i f p r a c t i c e d b e y o n d i t s p r a c t i c a l l i m i t s .THE FOUNDER OF CROSSFIT, GREG GLASSMAN, WAS RECENTLY QUOTED SAYING,“IT CAN KILL YOU. I’VE ALWAYS BEENCOMPLETELY HONEST ABOUT THAT.”
  • 21. Or eating. A little bit of food can be the difference betweensurvival and death, which is a very high return on investment.BUT AMERICA IS APPROACHING HORMEGEDDON IN THEIR RELATIONSHIP WITH FOOD,WITH OVER A QUARTER OF AMERICANSCLASSIFIED AS OBESE.
  • 22. UNDERSTANDING HORMEGEDDON GIVES US THE CONTEXT AND UNDERSTANDING TOHELP US AVOID THESE IMPENDING DISASTERS IN OUR OWN LIVES, LIKEINVESTING FOR RETIREMENT, RUNNING A BUSINESS,OR IMPROVING OUR RELATIONSHIPS.
  • 23. “THIS IS A MUST, MUST, MUST READ EXPOSITION ON THE SIDEEFFECT OF GOVERNMENT. IT EXPOSES THE PROBLEM OF NAIVEINTERVENTIONISM, THE IATROGENICS OF BUREAUCRACIES, AND THEGROWING ABSENCE OF SKIN- IN-THE-GAME. . . IT IS DEEPILLUSTRATIVE, WITTY, PLEASANT TO READ.”—NASSIM NICHOLAS TALEB,AUTHOR OF THE BLACK SWAN AND ANTIFRAGILE
  • 24. From New York Times Bestseller Bill Bonner,learn how to navigate the biggest man-madedisasters of our time and succeed in business,investing, and life in spite of them withHormegeddon: How Too Much Of A GoodThing Leads To Disaster.BUY NOW
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