Disaster Risk Reduction and Management

Presentations & Public Speaking

ryann-castro
Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Supplemented by Ryann U. Castro DISASTER RISK REDUCTION & MANAGEMENT SCOPE: DEFINITION OF TERMS HAZARD EXPOSURE VULNERABILITY CAPACITY RISK DISASTER BAGUIO CITY: EFFECTS OF DISASTERS EARTHQUAKE TROPICAL CYCLONE TRASHSLIDE PHILIPPINES RISK PROFILE PREPAREDNESS New Framework on Disaster Risk Reduction & Management Salient Provision of R. A. 10121 (DRRM act of 2010) Strengthening Disaster Risk Reduction Emergency/disaster Operations CENter SITUATIONAL ISSUES INCIDENT MANAGEMENT 2 2 DEFINITION OF TERMS HAZARD Is a dangerous phenomenon, substance, human activity or condition that may cause loss of life, injury or other health impacts, property damage, loss of livelihood & services, social & economic disruption or environmental damage... Could be a potentially damaging phenomenon It could be natural or human-induced. 4 4 EXPOSURE The degree to which the element at risk are likely to experience hazard events of different magnitude. 5 5 VULNERABILITY Is the characteristics and circumstances of a community, system or asset that make it susceptible to the damaging effects of a hazard. This may arise from various physical, social, economic & environmental factors. 6 6 VULNERABILITY Social Integration Ethnicity Age Gender Location Status Wealth Income Education Family type Psychological & Physiological Locus of control Disability Coping-style Individual’s perception Lifestyle Agility Mobility Experience Britton and Walker 1991 7 Vulnerability has been related to the following factors: …Continued In parallel to this shift in disaster management, the health sector is recognizing that better health within a community cannot be achieved through the provision of health care alone. The health sector is looking to models of population health and health promotion to address the determinants of health just as disaster management has evolved from treating the harmful agent to strengthening the community’s resilience to harm. 7 Is the combination of all strengths and resources available within the community, society or organization that can reduce the level of risk or effects of a disaster. 8 CAPACITY 8 RISK Is the combination of Probability of an event to happen and its negative consequences... 9 R = HAZARD x VULNERABILITY (exposure) CAPACITY 9 DISASTER A disaster is a natural or man-made (or technological) hazard resulting in an event of substantial extent causing significant physical damage or destruction, loss of life, or drastic change to the environment. A disaster can be ostensively defined as any tragic event stemming from events such as earthquakes, floods, catastrophic accidents, fires, or explosions. It is a phenomenon that can cause damage to life and property and destroy the economic, social and cultural life of people. In contemporary academia, disasters are seen as the consequence of inappropriately managed risk. These risks are the product of a combination of both hazard/s and vulnerability. Hazards that strike in areas with low vulnerability will never become disasters, as is the case in uninhabited regions. 11 11 DISASTER Natural Disaster A natural disaster is a consequence when a natural hazard affects humans and/or the built environment. Human vulnerability, and lack of appropriate emergency management, leads to financial, environmental, or human impact. The resulting loss depends on the capacity of the population to support or resist the disaster: their resilience. This understanding is concentrated in the formulation: "disasters occur when hazards meet vulnerability". A natural hazard will hence never result in a natural disaster in areas without vulnerability. 12 Classifications …Continued 12 DISASTER 13 Classifications Man-made or Human Induced Disaster Man-made disasters are the consequence of technological or human hazards. Examples include stampedes, fires, transport accidents, industrial accidents, oil spills and nuclear explosions/radiation. War and deliberate attacks may also be put in this category. As with natural hazards, man-made hazards are events that have not happened, for instance terrorism. Man-made disasters are examples of specific cases where man-made hazards have become reality in an event …Continued 13 When Is An Event A Disaster? At least 20% of the population are affected & in need of emergency assistance or those dwelling units have been destroyed. A great number or at least 40% of the means of livelihood such as bancas, fishing boats, vehicles and the like are destroyed. Major roads and bridges are destroyed and impassable for at least a week, thus disrupting the flow of transport and commerce. Widespread destruction of fishponds, crops, poultry and livestock, and other agricultural products, and Epidemics NDCC Memo Order No. 4, dated 04 March 1998 14 DISASTER …Continued 14 Why Are Disaster Impacts Increasing? Increased in population Climate change Increased vulnerability due to: Demographic changes Increased concentration of assets Environmental degradation Poverty Rapid urbanization and unplanned development 15 DISASTER …Continued 15 BAGUIO CITY EFFECTS OF DISASTERS EARTHQUAKE 17 July 16 1990 Ms=7.8 DEAD – 1,666 INJURED – 3,500 17 Hyatt Terraces 18 …continued 18 19 University of BAGUIO FRB Hotel Nevada Hotel Siesta Inn 19 20 Park Hotel St. Vincent Royal Inn Hilltop Hotel 20 21 Baguio Cathedral Aurora Theater EPZA/PEZA Loakan Airport 21 22 Burnham Park 22 JULY 16, 1990 EARTHQUAKE 23 Aftershocks of the 1990 July 16 earthquake Ms=7.8 PHIVOLCS data First 14 hours Many aftershocks found west of Baguio City, not along fault trace …Continued 23 Super Typhoon “Pepeng” {Parma} 24 (September 30 – October 10, 2009) Max Center Wind: 195 kph Gustiness: 230 kph Speed: 9-26 kph Baguio City received 640 mm of rain during the 12-hour period starting 8:00 am on October 8 Tropical Storm “Ondoy” {Ketsana} was quickly followed by Super Typhoon “Pepeng” {Parma} (affected Northern Luzon October 2 – 10, 2009). 24 EFFECTS ST “PEPENG” {PARMA} 25 Affected Population Population affected in 5,486 barangays, 334 municipalities, and 33 cities in 27 provinces in Regions I, II, III, V, VI, CAR and NCR – 954,087 families / 4,478,284 persons Breakdown per Region The total number evacuated inside 54 evacuation centers were 3,258 families / 14,892 persons Casualties Reported deaths in CAR were mainly due to landslides while those in other regions were due to drowning (same figure in previous report) 465 Dead 207 Injured 47 Missing 25 EFFECTS ST “PEPENG” {PARMA} 26 Damages The total number of damaged houses were 61,869 (6,807 totally / 55,062 partially) The estimated cost of damage to infrastructure and agriculture were PhP27.297 Billion (infrastructure to include school buildings and health infrastructure PhP6.799 Billion; agriculture PhP20.495 Billion and private property PhP 0.003 Billion Agricultural area of 428,034 hectares incurred losses of 1,052.993 MT of crops (rice, corn, high value commercial crops, abaca and irrigation facilities) Education facilities damaged in Regions I, II, III, V and CAR: were 1,531 schools (1,280 Elementary and 251 High Schools) amounting to PhP767.45 Million …Continued 26 Track of ST “Pepeng” {PARMA} 27 Typhoon PEPENG {PARMA} entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility on 5 PM Wednesday, September 30, 2009 Super Typhoon “Pepeng” {Parma} affected Northern Luzon October 2 – 10, 2009. 27 EFFECTS ST “PEPENG” {PARMA} 28 BAGUIO INCIDENTS TOTAL ERODED RIPRAP 25 FALLEN TREE / IN DANGER OF FALLING 19 SOIL EROSION / LANDSLIDE 97 FLOOD 41 VEHICULAR ACCIDENT 1 CASUALTIES: A) Deaths 1) Landslide 2) Accident 58 2 B) Missing 5 C) Injured 27 Note: Incidents received, monitored and recorded by CDRRMC-DOC …Continued 28 CITY CAMP 29 FLOODING Date: October 8, 2009 Reported: 2:55 PM Cause: Heavy volume of rainfall could not be contained by the drainage. 29 Cresencia Village 30 LANDSLIDE Date: 08 October 2009 Reported: 8:00 PM Cause: Heavy volume of rainfall saturated the soil. Casualties: 23 30 Marcos Highway 31 ROAD CUT Date: October 8, 2009 Reported 9:31 PM Caused Closure of the Highway 31 Marcos Highway 32 ROAD CUT Date: October 8, 2009 Reported 9:31 PM Caused Closure of the Highway 32 KENNON ROAD 33 Fallen rocks and Mudslides 33 PINSAO PROPER 34 LANDSLIDE Date: October 9, 2009 Reported: 8:30 AM Cause: Heavy volume of rainfall saturated the soil. Casualties: 1 34 ↑ Rock Quarry 35 LANDSLIDE Date: October 9, 2009 Reported: 6:30 AM Cause: Heavy volume of rainfall saturated the soil. Casualties: 4 35 ↓ KITMA 36 LANDSLIDE Date: October 9, 2009 Reported: 9:56 AM Cause: Heavy volume of rainfall saturated the soil. Casualties: 8 36 PUROK 1, IRISAN 37 LANDSLIDE Date: October 9, 2009 Cause: Heavy volume of rainfall saturated the soil. Casualties: 16 37 SIMULTANEOUS INCIDENTS 38 38 TRASHSLIDE 39 August 26 – September 7, 2011 DEAD – 6 39 40 40 41 41 42 42 PREVIOUS DISASTERS IN C.A.R. 43 LGU as the first line of defence Early warning devise or equipment are vital in saving life Without communication support warning and the evacuation fails Early warning and evacuation system to attain Zero Casualty Pre-positioning of organic resource capability for quick response Building-back better not building-back-elsewhere DRR measures to protect economic investments Help must be linked to initiative. Protracted relief could breed mendicancy, inhibit or hold back local initiative and suppress native creativity Demand driven vs. donors driven Disaster Risk Reduction Plan must be considered basic input in the Regional Development Master Plan Lessons Learned Based your presentation with your observation and experiences from previous disasters Demand driven vs. donors driven means relief or assistance extended by fit the requirements of the victims and not according to the desire of the donor 43 RISK PROFILE RISK PROFILE 45 45 ATMOSPHERIC RISK PROFILE The country is considered one of the most disaster-prone. It ranks 12th among 200 countries most at-risk for tropical cyclones, floods, earthquakes, and landslides in the 2009 Mortality Risk Index of the UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction 47 Located along the typhoon belt in the Pacific making it vulnerable to typhoons and tsunami. Average of 20 typhoons yearly (7 are destructive). …Continued 47 RISK PROFILE 48 …Continued 1851-2006 Typhoon Season TD TS 1 2 3 4 5 Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Intensity Scale Tracks and Intensity of Tropical Cyclones, 1851-2006 48 RISK PROFILE 49 …Continued 1980-2005 Typhoon Season 49 RISK PROFILE 50 …Continued 1980-2005 Typhoon Season 50 RISK PROFILE 51 …Continued 51 RISK PROFILE 52 AREAS SUSCEPTIBLE TO LANDSLIDE, FLOODING, AND SUBSIDENCE DUE TO KARST DEVELOPMENT …Continued 52 SEISMIC RISK PROFILE 54 Located along the Pacific Ring of Fire, between two Tectonic plates (Eurasian and Pacific) which are volcanic and earthquake generators. 22 active volcanoes (5 most active). The Philippines, given its location on the earth is prone to various types of Natural Disasters. …Continued 54 RISK PROFILE 55 …Continued Fact: The Philippine Archipelago has a complex tectonic setting with several trenches and many active faults 55 RISK PROFILE 56 …Continued 56 RISK PROFILE 57 …Continued 57 RISK PROFILE 58 0 50 100 km N Manila Trench South China Sea Pacific Ocean East Luzon Trough Vintar Abra River Digdig Philippine Fault East Zambales Marikina Valley Bangui Baguio City Tebbo San Manuel Tuba River Northwest segments of the Philippine Fault Zone (PFZ): Digdig Fault San Manuel Fault Tebbo Fault Tuba Fault Bangui Fault Abra River Fault Earthquake Generators Within Cordillera Source: Phivolcs …Continued 58 RISK PROFILE 59 Tuba River Tuba Fault West of Baguio City, approximately 5 km away, NW trending 50 km long could generate a Ms 7.25 earthquake max Tebbo Fault located approximately 10 km Southeast of Baguio City 70 km long could generate a Ms 7.4 earthquake max 2 Seismic Generators near Baguio City 0 50 100 km N Manila Trench South China Sea Pacific Ocean East Luzon Trough Vintar Abra River Digdig Philippine Fault East Zambales Marikina Valley Bangui Baguio City Tebbo San Manuel Source: Phivolcs …Continued 59 RISK PROFILE 60 …Continued Tuba Fault Mirador Fault San Vicente Fault Bued Fault Loakan Fault Burnham Fault Fault 0 100 300 km N LEGEND: Source: Office of the City Planning & Development Coordinator 60 RISK PROFILE 61 …Continued The PHIVOLCS earthquake and catalogue seismicity maps shows so far, seven (7) historically and instrumentally recorded destructive earthquakes (Intensity VII-IX in the adapted Rossi-Forel scale) have affected Baguio City for the past 356 years (1645-2001). This roughly translate into a return period of at least one destructive earthquake (Intensity VII to IX) for every 50 years. In addition, there were four very destructive earthquakes during the 356-year period for a return period of at least one very destructive earthquake (Intensity VIII to IX) for every 89 years. In comparison, regional probabilistic seismic hazard calculations by Thenhaus (1994) yielded annual probability rates of Ms: 6.4 to
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Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Supplemented by Ryann U. Castro DISASTER RISK REDUCTION & MANAGEMENT SCOPE: DEFINITION OF TERMS HAZARD EXPOSURE VULNERABILITY CAPACITY RISK DISASTER BAGUIO CITY: EFFECTS OF DISASTERS EARTHQUAKE TROPICAL CYCLONE TRASHSLIDE PHILIPPINES RISK PROFILE PREPAREDNESS New Framework on Disaster Risk Reduction & Management Salient Provision of R. A. 10121 (DRRM act of 2010) Strengthening Disaster Risk Reduction Emergency/disaster Operations CENter SITUATIONAL ISSUES INCIDENT MANAGEMENT 2 2 DEFINITION OF TERMS HAZARD Is a dangerous phenomenon, substance, human activity or condition that may cause loss of life, injury or other health impacts, property damage, loss of livelihood & services, social & economic disruption or environmental damage... Could be a potentially damaging phenomenon It could be natural or human-induced. 4 4 EXPOSURE The degree to which the element at risk are likely to experience hazard events of different magnitude. 5 5 VULNERABILITY Is the characteristics and circumstances of a community, system or asset that make it susceptible to the damaging effects of a hazard. This may arise from various physical, social, economic & environmental factors. 6 6 VULNERABILITY Social Integration Ethnicity Age Gender Location Status Wealth Income Education Family type Psychological & Physiological Locus of control Disability Coping-style Individual’s perception Lifestyle Agility Mobility Experience Britton and Walker 1991 7 Vulnerability has been related to the following factors: …Continued In parallel to this shift in disaster management, the health sector is recognizing that better health within a community cannot be achieved through the provision of health care alone. The health sector is looking to models of population health and health promotion to address the determinants of health just as disaster management has evolved from treating the harmful agent to strengthening the community’s resilience to harm. 7 Is the combination of all strengths and resources available within the community, society or organization that can reduce the level of risk or effects of a disaster. 8 CAPACITY 8 RISK Is the combination of Probability of an event to happen and its negative consequences... 9 R = HAZARD x VULNERABILITY (exposure) CAPACITY 9 DISASTER A disaster is a natural or man-made (or technological) hazard resulting in an event of substantial extent causing significant physical damage or destruction, loss of life, or drastic change to the environment. A disaster can be ostensively defined as any tragic event stemming from events such as earthquakes, floods, catastrophic accidents, fires, or explosions. It is a phenomenon that can cause damage to life and property and destroy the economic, social and cultural life of people. In contemporary academia, disasters are seen as the consequence of inappropriately managed risk. These risks are the product of a combination of both hazard/s and vulnerability. Hazards that strike in areas with low vulnerability will never become disasters, as is the case in uninhabited regions. 11 11 DISASTER Natural Disaster A natural disaster is a consequence when a natural hazard affects humans and/or the built environment. Human vulnerability, and lack of appropriate emergency management, leads to financial, environmental, or human impact. The resulting loss depends on the capacity of the population to support or resist the disaster: their resilience. This understanding is concentrated in the formulation: "disasters occur when hazards meet vulnerability". A natural hazard will hence never result in a natural disaster in areas without vulnerability. 12 Classifications …Continued 12 DISASTER 13 Classifications Man-made or Human Induced Disaster Man-made disasters are the consequence of technological or human hazards. Examples include stampedes, fires, transport accidents, industrial accidents, oil spills and nuclear explosions/radiation. War and deliberate attacks may also be put in this category. As with natural hazards, man-made hazards are events that have not happened, for instance terrorism. Man-made disasters are examples of specific cases where man-made hazards have become reality in an event …Continued 13 When Is An Event A Disaster? At least 20% of the population are affected & in need of emergency assistance or those dwelling units have been destroyed. A great number or at least 40% of the means of livelihood such as bancas, fishing boats, vehicles and the like are destroyed. Major roads and bridges are destroyed and impassable for at least a week, thus disrupting the flow of transport and commerce. Widespread destruction of fishponds, crops, poultry and livestock, and other agricultural products, and Epidemics NDCC Memo Order No. 4, dated 04 March 1998 14 DISASTER …Continued 14 Why Are Disaster Impacts Increasing? Increased in population Climate change Increased vulnerability due to: Demographic changes Increased concentration of assets Environmental degradation Poverty Rapid urbanization and unplanned development 15 DISASTER …Continued 15 BAGUIO CITY EFFECTS OF DISASTERS EARTHQUAKE 17 July 16 1990 Ms=7.8 DEAD – 1,666 INJURED – 3,500 17 Hyatt Terraces 18 …continued 18 19 University of BAGUIO FRB Hotel Nevada Hotel Siesta Inn 19 20 Park Hotel St. Vincent Royal Inn Hilltop Hotel 20 21 Baguio Cathedral Aurora Theater EPZA/PEZA Loakan Airport 21 22 Burnham Park 22 JULY 16, 1990 EARTHQUAKE 23 Aftershocks of the 1990 July 16 earthquake Ms=7.8 PHIVOLCS data First 14 hours Many aftershocks found west of Baguio City, not along fault trace …Continued 23 Super Typhoon “Pepeng” {Parma} 24 (September 30 – October 10, 2009) Max Center Wind: 195 kph Gustiness: 230 kph Speed: 9-26 kph Baguio City received 640 mm of rain during the 12-hour period starting 8:00 am on October 8 Tropical Storm “Ondoy” {Ketsana} was quickly followed by Super Typhoon “Pepeng” {Parma} (affected Northern Luzon October 2 – 10, 2009). 24 EFFECTS ST “PEPENG” {PARMA} 25 Affected Population Population affected in 5,486 barangays, 334 municipalities, and 33 cities in 27 provinces in Regions I, II, III, V, VI, CAR and NCR – 954,087 families / 4,478,284 persons Breakdown per Region The total number evacuated inside 54 evacuation centers were 3,258 families / 14,892 persons Casualties Reported deaths in CAR were mainly due to landslides while those in other regions were due to drowning (same figure in previous report) 465 Dead 207 Injured 47 Missing 25 EFFECTS ST “PEPENG” {PARMA} 26 Damages The total number of damaged houses were 61,869 (6,807 totally / 55,062 partially) The estimated cost of damage to infrastructure and agriculture were PhP27.297 Billion (infrastructure to include school buildings and health infrastructure PhP6.799 Billion; agriculture PhP20.495 Billion and private property PhP 0.003 Billion Agricultural area of 428,034 hectares incurred losses of 1,052.993 MT of crops (rice, corn, high value commercial crops, abaca and irrigation facilities) Education facilities damaged in Regions I, II, III, V and CAR: were 1,531 schools (1,280 Elementary and 251 High Schools) amounting to PhP767.45 Million …Continued 26 Track of ST “Pepeng” {PARMA} 27 Typhoon PEPENG {PARMA} entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility on 5 PM Wednesday, September 30, 2009 Super Typhoon “Pepeng” {Parma} affected Northern Luzon October 2 – 10, 2009. 27 EFFECTS ST “PEPENG” {PARMA} 28 BAGUIO INCIDENTS TOTAL ERODED RIPRAP 25 FALLEN TREE / IN DANGER OF FALLING 19 SOIL EROSION / LANDSLIDE 97 FLOOD 41 VEHICULAR ACCIDENT 1 CASUALTIES: A) Deaths 1) Landslide 2) Accident 58 2 B) Missing 5 C) Injured 27 Note: Incidents received, monitored and recorded by CDRRMC-DOC …Continued 28 CITY CAMP 29 FLOODING Date: October 8, 2009 Reported: 2:55 PM Cause: Heavy volume of rainfall could not be contained by the drainage. 29 Cresencia Village 30 LANDSLIDE Date: 08 October 2009 Reported: 8:00 PM Cause: Heavy volume of rainfall saturated the soil. Casualties: 23 30 Marcos Highway 31 ROAD CUT Date: October 8, 2009 Reported 9:31 PM Caused Closure of the Highway 31 Marcos Highway 32 ROAD CUT Date: October 8, 2009 Reported 9:31 PM Caused Closure of the Highway 32 KENNON ROAD 33 Fallen rocks and Mudslides 33 PINSAO PROPER 34 LANDSLIDE Date: October 9, 2009 Reported: 8:30 AM Cause: Heavy volume of rainfall saturated the soil. Casualties: 1 34 ↑ Rock Quarry 35 LANDSLIDE Date: October 9, 2009 Reported: 6:30 AM Cause: Heavy volume of rainfall saturated the soil. Casualties: 4 35 ↓ KITMA 36 LANDSLIDE Date: October 9, 2009 Reported: 9:56 AM Cause: Heavy volume of rainfall saturated the soil. Casualties: 8 36 PUROK 1, IRISAN 37 LANDSLIDE Date: October 9, 2009 Cause: Heavy volume of rainfall saturated the soil. Casualties: 16 37 SIMULTANEOUS INCIDENTS 38 38 TRASHSLIDE 39 August 26 – September 7, 2011 DEAD – 6 39 40 40 41 41 42 42 PREVIOUS DISASTERS IN C.A.R. 43 LGU as the first line of defence Early warning devise or equipment are vital in saving life Without communication support warning and the evacuation fails Early warning and evacuation system to attain Zero Casualty Pre-positioning of organic resource capability for quick response Building-back better not building-back-elsewhere DRR measures to protect economic investments Help must be linked to initiative. Protracted relief could breed mendicancy, inhibit or hold back local initiative and suppress native creativity Demand driven vs. donors driven Disaster Risk Reduction Plan must be considered basic input in the Regional Development Master Plan Lessons Learned Based your presentation with your observation and experiences from previous disasters Demand driven vs. donors driven means relief or assistance extended by fit the requirements of the victims and not according to the desire of the donor 43 RISK PROFILE RISK PROFILE 45 45 ATMOSPHERIC RISK PROFILE The country is considered one of the most disaster-prone. It ranks 12th among 200 countries most at-risk for tropical cyclones, floods, earthquakes, and landslides in the 2009 Mortality Risk Index of the UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction 47 Located along the typhoon belt in the Pacific making it vulnerable to typhoons and tsunami. Average of 20 typhoons yearly (7 are destructive). …Continued 47 RISK PROFILE 48 …Continued 1851-2006 Typhoon Season TD TS 1 2 3 4 5 Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Intensity Scale Tracks and Intensity of Tropical Cyclones, 1851-2006 48 RISK PROFILE 49 …Continued 1980-2005 Typhoon Season 49 RISK PROFILE 50 …Continued 1980-2005 Typhoon Season 50 RISK PROFILE 51 …Continued 51 RISK PROFILE 52 AREAS SUSCEPTIBLE TO LANDSLIDE, FLOODING, AND SUBSIDENCE DUE TO KARST DEVELOPMENT …Continued 52 SEISMIC RISK PROFILE 54 Located along the Pacific Ring of Fire, between two Tectonic plates (Eurasian and Pacific) which are volcanic and earthquake generators. 22 active volcanoes (5 most active). The Philippines, given its location on the earth is prone to various types of Natural Disasters. …Continued 54 RISK PROFILE 55 …Continued Fact: The Philippine Archipelago has a complex tectonic setting with several trenches and many active faults 55 RISK PROFILE 56 …Continued 56 RISK PROFILE 57 …Continued 57 RISK PROFILE 58 0 50 100 km N Manila Trench South China Sea Pacific Ocean East Luzon Trough Vintar Abra River Digdig Philippine Fault East Zambales Marikina Valley Bangui Baguio City Tebbo San Manuel Tuba River Northwest segments of the Philippine Fault Zone (PFZ): Digdig Fault San Manuel Fault Tebbo Fault Tuba Fault Bangui Fault Abra River Fault Earthquake Generators Within Cordillera Source: Phivolcs …Continued 58 RISK PROFILE 59 Tuba River Tuba Fault West of Baguio City, approximately 5 km away, NW trending 50 km long could generate a Ms 7.25 earthquake max Tebbo Fault located approximately 10 km Southeast of Baguio City 70 km long could generate a Ms 7.4 earthquake max 2 Seismic Generators near Baguio City 0 50 100 km N Manila Trench South China Sea Pacific Ocean East Luzon Trough Vintar Abra River Digdig Philippine Fault East Zambales Marikina Valley Bangui Baguio City Tebbo San Manuel Source: Phivolcs …Continued 59 RISK PROFILE 60 …Continued Tuba Fault Mirador Fault San Vicente Fault Bued Fault Loakan Fault Burnham Fault Fault 0 100 300 km N LEGEND: Source: Office of the City Planning & Development Coordinator 60 RISK PROFILE 61 …Continued The PHIVOLCS earthquake and catalogue seismicity maps shows so far, seven (7) historically and instrumentally recorded destructive earthquakes (Intensity VII-IX in the adapted Rossi-Forel scale) have affected Baguio City for the past 356 years (1645-2001). This roughly translate into a return period of at least one destructive earthquake (Intensity VII to IX) for every 50 years. In addition, there were four very destructive earthquakes during the 356-year period for a return period of at least one very destructive earthquake (Intensity VIII to IX) for every 89 years. In comparison, regional probabilistic seismic hazard calculations by Thenhaus (1994) yielded annual probability rates of Ms: 6.4 to
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