Stories to Watch 2012

Education

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  • 1. MANISH BAPNA, INTERIM PRESIDENTJANUARY 10, 2012
  • 2. The Prediction Game
  • 3. How Will 2011 Be Remembered?
  • 4. How Will 2011 Be Remembered?http://www.inquisitr.com/168221/occupy-wall-street-stomps-on-stimulus/
  • 5. Stories to Watch 20121. U.S. Climate & Energy in an Election Year2. Transitions in China3. An Overlooked Breadbasket4. Renewable Energy: Boom or Bust?5. A Bravo for Rio?
  • 6. Stories to Watch 20121. U.S. Climate & Energy in an Election Year2. Transitions in China3. An Overlooked Breadbasket4. Renewable Energy: Boom or Bust?5. A Bravo for Rio?
  • 7. U.S. Climate Policy - 2011Pres. Obama calls for cleanNational vehicle rules establishedenergy standards EPA Mercury & Air Toxics Rules CA Air Resources Board adopts final cap-and-trade regulationJan. Mar. Jul.Oct.Nov.Dec.EPA ozone rules delayedSec. Clinton urges EU to change approach to curbing aviation emissionsOffshore drilling expanded Keystone decision delayed
  • 8. U.S. GHG Emissions Target for 2020Source: Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the United States Using Existing Federal Authorities and StateAction, World Resources Institute, 2010
  • 9. Administration’s Rulemaking Report Card YES NOPower Plant Performance StandardsEfficiency Standards for Appliances andEquipmentTransportation Standards for Light-DutyVehicles MY 2017-2025Refinery Performance StandardsNatural Gas System Regulations for VOCs,SO2, & ToxicsHydrofluorocarbons (HFCs)
  • 10. CA & RGGI States Represent Sizable EconomiesPercent of U.S. GDP 2009 California• CA: GHG cap-and-trade 13.3% program in 2013 will cover 85% of emissions by 2015 • RGGI: GHG cap-and- RGGI trade program for electricity (10 states)U.S. (balance) covers more than 20% of 19%67.7%regions total emissionsSource: US Census
  • 11. Yesterday & Today“I will clean up the planet, I will “Let us resolve that all nations--includingmake global warming a priority.”my own--will act with seriousness ofpurpose, and reduce the carbon we sendSen. John McCain, Jan. 2008 into our atmosphere.”Candidate Barack Obama, July 2008
  • 12. Yesterday & Today“I do support capping carbon emissions.”Gov. Sarah Palin October 2008, Vice Presidential Debate
  • 13. Campaign 2012
  • 14. Stories to Watch 20121. U.S. Climate & Energy in an Election Year2. Transitions in China3. An Overlooked Breadbasket?4. Renewable Energy: Boom or Bust?5. A Bravo for Rio?
  • 15. China’s President, Premier and PolitburoXi Jinping Li Keqiang1. http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2008-03/15/xin_4720305151238906199427.jpg2. http://www.wantchinatimes.com/whoswho-cnt.aspx?id=20101208000064&cid=20 3. http://tilt.ft.com/#!posts/2011-08/26926/chinas-changing-of-guard
  • 16. Clean Energy Trade War?
  • 17. Coal Consumption in China Total Energy Consumption (Btu) in China, 2008US Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, “Country Analysis Brief: China”http://205.254.135.24/countries/cab.cfm?fips=CH
  • 18. China’s Provincial CO2 Trading Systems“It’s very clear in China’s Five-Year Plan that it’s our objective togradually establish a nationalsystem on carbon emissionstrading.”- Su Wei Su Wei Director General for Climate Change National Development and Reform CommissionPhoto by Miguel Villagran/Getty Images Europe
  • 19. CO2 & Efficiency Trading Around the WorldEU RGGI StatesChinaCalifornia ProvincesIndia AustraliaNew Zealand
  • 20. Stories to Watch 20121. U.S. Climate & Energy in an Election Year2. Transitions in China3. An Overlooked Breadbasket?4. Renewable Energy: Boom or Bust?5. A Bravo for Rio?
  • 21. Accelerating Global Food Demand
  • 22. Annual Average Global Yield Rates Crop 1961-1990 1990-2007 % Difference Wheat2.9 0.5 - 83% Maize2.2 1.8 - 18% Rice 2.2 0.9 - 59% Soya 1.8 1.1 - 39%Source: Alston, Beddow and Pardey (2009) using FAO (2008) and USDA FAS (2008)
  • 23. Degraded Lands: An Opportunity?Indonesia Brazil
  • 24. Restoration Stories in 2012IndonesiaBrazilConsumer Goods ForumConsumershttp://www.globalforestwatch.org/english/indonesia/forests.htmhttp://indepthafrica.com/global-issues/dilma-rousseff-declares-the-winner-of-brazil-election/
  • 25. Stories to Watch 20121. U.S. Climate & Energy in an Election Year2. Transitions in China3. An Overlooked Breadbasket?4. Renewable Energy: Boom or Bust?5. A Bravo for Rio?
  • 26. Global Energy Investment for Power GenerationSource:EIA, IEA, Bloomberg New Energy Finance
  • 27. IPCC Global Review of Renewable EnergyIPCC Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources-SPM 2011, pg 10.
  • 28. Residential Solar Power by 2015 (U.S.)NREL, Break-Even Cost for Residential Photovoltaics in the United States, 2009, Figure 8.
  • 29. And competitively priced renewables are notjust taking off in the U.S… China: Wind energy competitive in two years Italy, Spain, Greece & Portugal:and solar PV by 2015. Solar PV competitive within two years.India: Solar PV Germany: Windcompetitive with on-FL, NC, NJ, Southwest: electricity spot grid diesel generation.Solar PV close tocompetitive with fossilprices cheaper thanfuels. fossil fuels some days in 2011.Brazil: In 2011, Wind energyIsland Nations, Japan & Hawaii:auctions undercut price ofSolar PV competitive within twonatural gas.years.
  • 30. The Shale Gas BoomTime Magazine, April 2011
  • 31. U.S. Clean Energy Policy & IncentivesSource: Brookings
  • 32. Stories to Watch 20121. U.S. Climate & Energy in an Election Year2. Transitions in China3. An Overlooked Breadbasket?4. Renewable Energy: Boom or Bust?5. A Bravo for Rio?
  • 33. Earth Summits 1972-2012Stockholm 1972 Rio 1992 Johannesburg 2002Rio 2012
  • 34. Rio Earth Summit 2012Green Economy Institutional Framework for Sustainable Development
  • 35. Rio: What are they saying?• Green economy roadmap, UNEO• No new institutions, engage private sector and social media• Late engagement, defensive posture• Keep “common but differentiated responsibilities”• Opportunity to shine, strong involvement of Rio city
  • 36. What to Look for at Rio+20Energy AccessFood SecurityWater Governancehttp://www.nexusafrica.ca/africa-in-2011-getting-out-the-vote-the-call/http://www.new-ventures.org/content/scaling-clean-energy-access-india-workshophttp://vivekitam.wordpress.com/2011/01/14/a-paperback-analysis-of-nacs-food-security-proposal-part-2/© ICRC
  • 37. MANISH BAPNA, INTERIM PRESIDENTJANUARY 10, 2012
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    Looking ahead to the big environmental and sustainability stories for 2012. Topics include: What does the U.S. presidential election mean for key environmental issues, including the future of the EPA? What will be the key drivers for renewable energy in 2012? What does China’s upcoming leadership transition mean? How will the expanding global population impact scarce natural resources, including forests? What will happen at the 2012 Earth Summit in Rio?
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    • 1. MANISH BAPNA, INTERIM PRESIDENTJANUARY 10, 2012
  • 2. The Prediction Game
  • 3. How Will 2011 Be Remembered?
  • 4. How Will 2011 Be Remembered?http://www.inquisitr.com/168221/occupy-wall-street-stomps-on-stimulus/
  • 5. Stories to Watch 20121. U.S. Climate & Energy in an Election Year2. Transitions in China3. An Overlooked Breadbasket4. Renewable Energy: Boom or Bust?5. A Bravo for Rio?
  • 6. Stories to Watch 20121. U.S. Climate & Energy in an Election Year2. Transitions in China3. An Overlooked Breadbasket4. Renewable Energy: Boom or Bust?5. A Bravo for Rio?
  • 7. U.S. Climate Policy - 2011Pres. Obama calls for cleanNational vehicle rules establishedenergy standards EPA Mercury & Air Toxics Rules CA Air Resources Board adopts final cap-and-trade regulationJan. Mar. Jul.Oct.Nov.Dec.EPA ozone rules delayedSec. Clinton urges EU to change approach to curbing aviation emissionsOffshore drilling expanded Keystone decision delayed
  • 8. U.S. GHG Emissions Target for 2020Source: Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the United States Using Existing Federal Authorities and StateAction, World Resources Institute, 2010
  • 9. Administration’s Rulemaking Report Card YES NOPower Plant Performance StandardsEfficiency Standards for Appliances andEquipmentTransportation Standards for Light-DutyVehicles MY 2017-2025Refinery Performance StandardsNatural Gas System Regulations for VOCs,SO2, & ToxicsHydrofluorocarbons (HFCs)
  • 10. CA & RGGI States Represent Sizable EconomiesPercent of U.S. GDP 2009 California• CA: GHG cap-and-trade 13.3% program in 2013 will cover 85% of emissions by 2015 • RGGI: GHG cap-and- RGGI trade program for electricity (10 states)U.S. (balance) covers more than 20% of 19%67.7%regions total emissionsSource: US Census
  • 11. Yesterday & Today“I will clean up the planet, I will “Let us resolve that all nations--includingmake global warming a priority.”my own--will act with seriousness ofpurpose, and reduce the carbon we sendSen. John McCain, Jan. 2008 into our atmosphere.”Candidate Barack Obama, July 2008
  • 12. Yesterday & Today“I do support capping carbon emissions.”Gov. Sarah Palin October 2008, Vice Presidential Debate
  • 13. Campaign 2012
  • 14. Stories to Watch 20121. U.S. Climate & Energy in an Election Year2. Transitions in China3. An Overlooked Breadbasket?4. Renewable Energy: Boom or Bust?5. A Bravo for Rio?
  • 15. China’s President, Premier and PolitburoXi Jinping Li Keqiang1. http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2008-03/15/xin_4720305151238906199427.jpg2. http://www.wantchinatimes.com/whoswho-cnt.aspx?id=20101208000064&cid=20 3. http://tilt.ft.com/#!posts/2011-08/26926/chinas-changing-of-guard
  • 16. Clean Energy Trade War?
  • 17. Coal Consumption in China Total Energy Consumption (Btu) in China, 2008US Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, “Country Analysis Brief: China”http://205.254.135.24/countries/cab.cfm?fips=CH
  • 18. China’s Provincial CO2 Trading Systems“It’s very clear in China’s Five-Year Plan that it’s our objective togradually establish a nationalsystem on carbon emissionstrading.”- Su Wei Su Wei Director General for Climate Change National Development and Reform CommissionPhoto by Miguel Villagran/Getty Images Europe
  • 19. CO2 & Efficiency Trading Around the WorldEU RGGI StatesChinaCalifornia ProvincesIndia AustraliaNew Zealand
  • 20. Stories to Watch 20121. U.S. Climate & Energy in an Election Year2. Transitions in China3. An Overlooked Breadbasket?4. Renewable Energy: Boom or Bust?5. A Bravo for Rio?
  • 21. Accelerating Global Food Demand
  • 22. Annual Average Global Yield Rates Crop 1961-1990 1990-2007 % Difference Wheat2.9 0.5 - 83% Maize2.2 1.8 - 18% Rice 2.2 0.9 - 59% Soya 1.8 1.1 - 39%Source: Alston, Beddow and Pardey (2009) using FAO (2008) and USDA FAS (2008)
  • 23. Degraded Lands: An Opportunity?Indonesia Brazil
  • 24. Restoration Stories in 2012IndonesiaBrazilConsumer Goods ForumConsumershttp://www.globalforestwatch.org/english/indonesia/forests.htmhttp://indepthafrica.com/global-issues/dilma-rousseff-declares-the-winner-of-brazil-election/
  • 25. Stories to Watch 20121. U.S. Climate & Energy in an Election Year2. Transitions in China3. An Overlooked Breadbasket?4. Renewable Energy: Boom or Bust?5. A Bravo for Rio?
  • 26. Global Energy Investment for Power GenerationSource:EIA, IEA, Bloomberg New Energy Finance
  • 27. IPCC Global Review of Renewable EnergyIPCC Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources-SPM 2011, pg 10.
  • 28. Residential Solar Power by 2015 (U.S.)NREL, Break-Even Cost for Residential Photovoltaics in the United States, 2009, Figure 8.
  • 29. And competitively priced renewables are notjust taking off in the U.S… China: Wind energy competitive in two years Italy, Spain, Greece & Portugal:and solar PV by 2015. Solar PV competitive within two years.India: Solar PV Germany: Windcompetitive with on-FL, NC, NJ, Southwest: electricity spot grid diesel generation.Solar PV close tocompetitive with fossilprices cheaper thanfuels. fossil fuels some days in 2011.Brazil: In 2011, Wind energyIsland Nations, Japan & Hawaii:auctions undercut price ofSolar PV competitive within twonatural gas.years.
  • 30. The Shale Gas BoomTime Magazine, April 2011
  • 31. U.S. Clean Energy Policy & IncentivesSource: Brookings
  • 32. Stories to Watch 20121. U.S. Climate & Energy in an Election Year2. Transitions in China3. An Overlooked Breadbasket?4. Renewable Energy: Boom or Bust?5. A Bravo for Rio?
  • 33. Earth Summits 1972-2012Stockholm 1972 Rio 1992 Johannesburg 2002Rio 2012
  • 34. Rio Earth Summit 2012Green Economy Institutional Framework for Sustainable Development
  • 35. Rio: What are they saying?• Green economy roadmap, UNEO• No new institutions, engage private sector and social media• Late engagement, defensive posture• Keep “common but differentiated responsibilities”• Opportunity to shine, strong involvement of Rio city
  • 36. What to Look for at Rio+20Energy AccessFood SecurityWater Governancehttp://www.nexusafrica.ca/africa-in-2011-getting-out-the-vote-the-call/http://www.new-ventures.org/content/scaling-clean-energy-access-india-workshophttp://vivekitam.wordpress.com/2011/01/14/a-paperback-analysis-of-nacs-food-security-proposal-part-2/© ICRC
  • 37. MANISH BAPNA, INTERIM PRESIDENTJANUARY 10, 2012
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