Stories to Watch 2014 - Europe

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  • 1.1FEATURINGManish Bapna Executive Vice President, WRI Image: Flickr/NA.dir
  • 2. ECONOMIC RECESSION IS OVER 7% 6% 5%GDP GROWTH4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1%-2% -3%-4% 2007Source: IMF, 20132008200920102011201220132014
  • 3. EMERGING ECONOMIES SLOWING BUT ROBUST 16% 14%GDP GROWTH12% 10% 8% 6% 4%2% 0% 2007 -2%Source: IMF, 2013BRAZIL 2008200920102011201220132014
  • 4. GLOBAL GDP – GETTING BACK ON TRACKReal GDP (2005 dollars)$100tr 2030$50tr $30tr $15 trillion19901970Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service2010
  • 5. THE RISE OF THE GLOBAL MIDDLE CLASS5 Billion2 Billion 1 Billion 1990 Source: Reuters, OECD 201020102030
  • 6. 1.2 billion100 millionpeople living on less than $1.25 per daychildren undernourished or underweight123 million1 billionyouth lacking basic literacy skillslack basic sanitation facilities(UNDP 2013)
  • 7. UNFINISHED BUSINESS1.2 BillionOverweightHungry 900 Million
  • 8. EXPONENTIAL ENVIRONMENTAL TRENDS
  • 9. THE BIG QUESTIONCan we have economic growth and tackle poverty and sustainability at the same time?
  • 10. SHIFTING TO A SUSTAINABLE FOOD FUTURE?1 SHIFTING TO A SUSTAINABLE FOOD FUTURE?Image: istockphoto
  • 11. The world needs to close the food gap69%INCREASE IN FOOD CALORIES TO FEED 9.6 BILLION BY 2050Source: WRI analysis based on Alexandratos, N., and J. Bruinsma. 2012. World agriculture towards 2030/2050: The 2012 revision. Rome: FAO.
  • 12. The world needs agriculture to support economic developmentSource: World Bank. 2012. World Development Indicators. Accessible at: (accessed December 13, 2012).
  • 13. The world needs to reduce agriculture’s impact on the environment70%Water withdrawals37% 24%of Earth’s landmassGreenhouse gas emissions (Photo: Oxfam International /Flickr)
  • 14. 32%Increased rate of annual yield improvement needed between now and 2050Source: WRI analysis based on Alexandratos, N., and J. Bruinsma. 2012. World agriculture towards 2030/2050: The 2012 revision. Rome: FAO.
  • 15. Most studies project net adverse impacts on crop yields due to climate change (3° C warmer world)Source: World Bank. 2010. World Development Report 2010: Development and Climate Change. Washington, DC: World Bank.
  • 16. Menu for a sustainable food future (preliminary) Consumption   Production Sustainably increase crop yields  Boost yields through attentive crop breeding  Improve soil and water management  Expand onto low-carbon degraded lands  Sustainably increase “livestock” productivity  Increase productivity of pasture and grazing lands  Reduce then stabilize wild fish catch  Increase productivity of aquacultureProduction methods Improve livestock feeding efficiency  Increase the efficiency of fertilizer use  Manage rice paddies to reduce emissionsReduce food loss and waste Shift to healthier diets Achieve replacement level fertility Reduce biofuel demand for food crops
  • 17. Reduce food loss and waste along the value chain (Percent of kcal lost or wasted)Note: Numbers may not sum to 100 due to rounding. Source: WRI analysis based on FAO. 2011. Global food losses and food waste—extent, causes and prevention. Rome: FAO.
  • 18. WHAT TO WATCH 1. Will global warming start to seriously affect yields? 2. Will the food loss and waste movement build momentum?
  • 19. SHIFTING TO A SUSTAINABLE FOOD FUTURE?WATER AT RISK?2 1 WATER AT RISK?Image: istockphoto
  • 20. WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM: WATER IS A GLOBAL RISK Water crises
  • 21. THREATS TO NATIONAL SECURITY Aqueduct maps used in 2011 National Intelligence Estimate on Water Security requested by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton
  • 22. WATER SCARCITY IS NEWS
  • 23. WATER SCARCITY WILL INTENSIFY People in absolute water scarcity1.8 BTens of millions will be displaced in arid, semi-arid regions202520221.2 B 2014Source: United Nations2018
  • 24. IN TIMES OF SCARCITY: POOR PEOPLE GET SQUEEZED
  • 25. AQUEDUCT WATER RISK ATLAS
  • 26. WORLD’S LEADING WATER INFORMATION PLATFORM- 15,000 catchments - 12 indicators of water risk - All open data publicly available - Current estimates and future projections
  • 27. WATER39% of irrigated cropland in this region is located ON IRRIGATED AGRICULTURE STRESSin areas of water stress concern Baseline Water Stress in areas with Irrigated AgricultureNOW
  • 28. WATER STRESS ON IRRIGATED AGRICULTURE 2025 Change in Water Stress by 2025 in areas with Irrigated Agriculture (IPCC Scenario A1B)
  • 29. WATER STRESS AND POWER PLANT CAPACITY NOW Baseline Water Stress and Power Plants
  • 30. would see water stress grow 2 to 8 times worse by 2025WATER STRESS AND POWER PLANT CAPACITY 2025 Change in Water Stress by 2025 and Power Plants (IPCC Scenario A1B)
  • 31. WHAT TO WATCH 1. Will water shortages begin to seriously affect agriculture output and power production?2. Will governments and companies take aggressive action to reduce water risks?
  • 32. SHIFTING TO A SUSTAINABLE FOOD FUTURE?WATER AT RISK?THE YEAR OF CITIES: HOW WILL THEY GROW?3 1 THE YEAR OF CITIES: HOW WILL THEY GROW?Image: istockphoto
  • 33. CITIES ARE BOOMING274,000 people added to cities each day for next 30 years Image: Harvey Barrison; Source: UN-Habitat
  • 34. AND URBAN GROWTH IS SPEEDING UPTime required to reach 2 million: Rome, Italy Vienna, Austria Vancouver, B.C. Shenzhen, China2000 years 400 years 115 years 20 years
  • 35. CITIES ARE ECONOMIC DRIVERS65%global GDP growth in major citiesImage: istockphoto; Source: McKinsey and Company
  • 36. URBAN POOR LACK ACCESS TO BASIC SERVICES
  • 37. BUT, CITIES BRING CHALLENGES• 75% of GHG emissions come from cities • 1.3 million people die prematurely due to urban air pollutionImage: Flickr/PauloFehlauer; Sources: UN-Habitat, UNFCCC, WHO
  • 38. BUT, CITIES BRING CHALLENGES$1 trillion Projected cost to coastal cities without adaptation
  • 39. THIS?Image: Flickr/RodrigoSolon
  • 40. OR THIS?Image: Flikr/Andreas
  • 41. CITIES: PROBLEM OR SOLUTION? Per capita emissions of CO2 equivalent (2011)Source: Cai et al. 2013, Hoornweg et al. 2011, Olivier et al. 2012
  • 42. WHAT TO WATCH 1. Which way will cities in Asia grow - up or out?Image: Flickr/DylanPassmore
  • 43. 4 1 RESTORATION: A 2 BILLION HECTARE OPPORTUNITY?Image: Flickr/USAID Kenya
  • 44. FORESTS UNDER PRESSURE50 Image: WRI; Source: Hansen et al.2013, WRIsoccer fields lost each minute
  • 45. BUT, THERE’S HOPE…2bn Source: Global Partnership on Forest Landscape Restorationhectares with opportunities for forest landscape restoration
  • 46. SOUTH KOREA: RESTORATION INTO FORESTS 19602000Image: WRI
  • 47. NIGER: RESTORATION INTO AGROFORESTRYPre-1990sImage: WRIToday
  • 48. THE BONN CHALLENGE150m hectares under restoration by 2020Image: Flickr/CIFOR; Source: WRI
  • 49. BONN CHALLENGE: BENEFITS150m RESTORED HECTARES • $84 billion in economic benefits per year • 1 gigatons of CO2e stored per year • Biodiversity, cultural and other benefitsImage: Flickr/CIFOR; ource: IUCN
  • 50. A GROWING MOVEMENTBRAZIL - PACTO COSTA RICA EL SALVADOR (1m ha) (1m ha) (1m ha)Source: WRIRWANDA (2m ha)USA (15m ha)
  • 51. WHAT TO WATCH 1. Will more countries make commitments when they meet in June 2014?2. Will a new global movement for restoration emerge?Image:
  • 52. SHIFTING TO A SUSTAINABLE FOOD FUTURE?WATER AT RISK?THE YEAR OF CITIES: HOW WILL THEY GROW?RESTORATION: A 2 BILLION HECTARE OPPORTUNITY?SUSTAINABLE PALM OIL: A NEW ERA?5 1 SUSTAINABLE PALM OIL: A NEW ERA?Image: istockphoto
  • 53. PALM OIL: A MAJOR CROP370% increase in palm oil production in 20 yearsImage: Flickr/carsten_tb; Source: FAO
  • 54. PALM OIL: A MAJOR CROP50%of grocery store products contain palm oilSource: National Geographic 2013
  • 55. SEIZING WIN-WINS: REDUCING DEFORESTATIONImage: WRI
  • 56. SEIZING WIN-WINS: REDUCING DEFORESTATIONImage: WRI
  • 57. SEIZING WIN-WINS: REDUCING DEFORESTATIONImage: WRI
  • 58. SEIZING WIN-WINS: REDUCING DEFORESTATIONImage: WRI
  • 59. A NEW APPROACH
  • 60. A NEW APPROACH“There is a strong and rapidly growing demand for traceable, deforestation-free palm oil, and we intend to meet it as a core element of our growth strategy.” –Kuok Khoon Hong, CEO of WilmarSource: Wilmar Press Release 2013
  • 61. SPOTLIGHT ON FORESTS: GLOBAL FOREST WATCH
  • 62. SPOTLIGHT ON FORESTS: GLOBAL FOREST WATCH
  • 63. SPOTLIGHT ON FORESTS: GLOBAL FOREST WATCH
  • 64. SPOTLIGHT ON FORESTS: GLOBAL FOREST WATCH
  • 65. SPOTLIGHT ON FORESTS: GLOBAL FOREST WATCH
  • 66. SPOTLIGHT ON FORESTS: GLOBAL FOREST WATCH
  • 67. SPOTLIGHT ON FORESTS: GLOBAL FOREST WATCHTESSO NILO NATIONAL PARK
  • 68. SPOTLIGHT ON FORESTS: GLOBAL FOREST WATCHImage: Jufri/ Greenpeace
  • 69. WHAT TO WATCH 1. Will better information expedite the shift to sustainable palm oil? 2. Will other industries follow?Image: istockphoto
  • 70. SHIFTING TO A SUSTAINABLE FOOD FUTURE?WATER AT RISK?THE YEAR OF CITIES: HOW WILL THEY GROW?RESTORATION: A 2 BILLION HECTARE OPPORTUNITY?6 CHINA: CLEARING THE AIR?Image: istockphotoSUSTAINABLE PALM OIL: A NEW ERA?CHINA: CLEARING THE AIR?
  • 71. 2013: A YEAR OF POLLUTION189 days of high pollution in Beijing in 2013Image: Flickr/Leniners
  • 72. POPULAR UNREST3mmentions of “PM 2.5” on SINA WEIBO, Jan 2013Image: Flickr/Robert Moposang; Source: The Guardian
  • 73. A DRIVER OF POLLUTION50% Image: WRI; source: EIA 2013global coal consumed by China
  • 74. TAKING ACTION: AIR$277bn budgeted for anti-pollution measures in the next 5 yearsImage: WRI; Source: China Daily
  • 75. TAKING ACTION: CUTTING COALBan on New Coal Plants in Beijing, Shanghai, GuangzhouImage: Flickr/Jonathan Kos-Read; source: ChinaFAQs
  • 76. TAKING ACTION: ENFORCEMENT8 cities in China fined by provincial government for air pollutionImage: Flickr/Bert Van Djik; Source: Xinhua
  • 77. TAKING ACTION: MORE RENEWABLES12 GWsolar capacity added in China, the record for any country in a single yearImage: Wikimedia: Bloomberg
  • 78. WHAT TO WATCH 1. A tipping point on air pollution? 2. More progress to rein in coal? 3. Will new renewables outpace fossil fuels?Image: WRI
  • 79. SHIFTING TO A SUSTAINABLE FOOD FUTURE?WATER AT RISK?THE YEAR OF CITIES: HOW WILL THEY GROW?7 1 UN SUMMIT: MOMENTUM ON CLIMATE?Image: Wikimedia istockphotoRESTORATION: A 2 BILLION HECTARE OPPORTUNITY?SUSTAINABLE PALM OIL: A NEW ERA?CHINA: CLEARING THE AIR?UN SUMMIT: MOMENTUM ON CLIMATE?
  • 80. NEARLY 100 COUNTRIES WITH GHG GOALSSource: UNFCCC
  • 81. THE BRUTAL ARITHMETIC200 Years it took us to use half the world’s carbon budget30 Years it will take us to use the other half at current rate To stay within 2° of warming, emissions should peak by2020
  • 82. UNBURNABLE CARBON 3000Coal 65%2500Two thirds of reserves “unburnable”Gt CO2200015001000Oil 22% 500Gas 13% 0Budget Source: Rystad Energy, Carbon TrackerProven reserves
  • 83. EUROPEAN COMMISSION POST-2020 PROPOSAL40%Reduction in GHG emissions by 2030 below 1990 levels27% Image: istockphoto; Source: UCSRenewable energy across EU by 2030
  • 84. US POST-2020 TARGET17% Image: Flickr/The White House; Source: White Houseemissions reduction by 2020
  • 85. IPCC REPORTS – MARCH & APRILImage: Flickr/Gavin Golden
  • 86. NEW CLIMATE ECONOMY – SEPTEMBERImage: WRI
  • 87. CLIMATE CHANGE SUMMIT – SEPTEMBERImage: Flickr/UNClimateChange
  • 88. PATHWAY TO PARISImage: Wikimedia
  • 89. We are at a pivotal momentHyogo Framework for Action on disaster risk reductionConference on Financing for DevelopmentPost-2015 Development FrameworkUNFCCC COP 212015
  • 90. WHAT TO WATCH 1. Will growing evidence spur public pressure? 2. Will a mid-term US strategy emerge? 3. Will the EU continue to lead?Image: Flickr/Philip Roeland
  • 91. SHIFTING TO A SUSTAINABLE FOOD FUTURE?WATER AT RISK?THE YEAR OF CITIES: HOW WILL THEY GROW?RESTORATION: A 2 BILLION HECTARE OPPORTUNITY?SUSTAINABLE PALM OIL: A NEW ERA?18 A BILLION VOTERS: WHICH DIRECTION WILL THEY CHOOSE? Image: istockphotoCHINA: CLEARING THE AIR?UN SUMMIT: MOMENTUM ON CLIMATE?A BILLION VOTERS: WHICH DIRECTION WILL THEY CHOOSE?
  • 92. A MOMENT OF OPPORTUNITY• 3 of the 4 largest democracies to elect heads of government • 25% of world’s population • 40% of the global poor Image: istockphoto
  • 93. ELECTIONS: BRAZIL136m voters in BrazilImage: Flickr/Dilma Rousseff; Source: IDEA
  • 94. ELECTIONS: INDIA780m voters in IndiaImage: Flickr/London Summit; Source: IDEA
  • 95. ELECTIONS: INDONESIA160m voters in IndonesiaImage: Flickr/World Economic Forum; Source: IDEA
  • 96. ELECTIONS: EUROPEAN UNIONImage: Flickr.EEAS
  • 97. U.S. MIDTERM ELECTIONSImage: istockphoto
  • 98. ELECTIONS MATTERImage: Wikipedia
  • 99. WHAT TO WATCH 1. Which way will these elections go? 2. What will the results tell us about the future of economic growth, poverty and sustainability?Image: Flickr/Al_Jazeera_English
  • 100. 1TOWARDS A SUSTAINABLE FOOD FUTURE2WATER AT RISK?3THE YEAR OF CITIES: HOW WILL THEY GROW RESTORATION: A 2 BILLION HECTARE OPPORTUNITY?45SUSTAINABLE PALM OIL: A NEW ERA?6CHINA: CLEARING THE AIR?7UN SUMMIT: MOMENTUM ON CLIMATE?8A BILLION VOTERS: WHICH DIRECTION WILL THEY CHOOSE?
  • Description
    What stories will impact people and the planet in 2014? On 18 February 2014, Executive Vice President and Managing Director Manish Bapna offered his perspectives on the major…