Stories to Watch 2014 - Europe
2. ECONOMIC RECESSION IS OVER 7% 6% 5%GDP GROWTH4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1%-2% -3%-4% 2007Source: IMF, 201320082009201020112012201320143. EMERGING ECONOMIES SLOWING BUT ROBUST 16% 14%GDP GROWTH12% 10% 8% 6% 4%2% 0% 2007 -2%Source: IMF, 2013BRAZIL 20082009201020112012201320144. GLOBAL GDP – GETTING BACK ON TRACKReal GDP (2005 dollars)$100tr 2030$50tr $30tr $15 trillion19901970Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service20105. THE RISE OF THE GLOBAL MIDDLE CLASS5 Billion2 Billion 1 Billion 1990 Source: Reuters, OECD 2010201020306. 1.2 billion100 millionpeople living on less than $1.25 per daychildren undernourished or underweight123 million1 billionyouth lacking basic literacy skillslack basic sanitation facilities(UNDP 2013)7. UNFINISHED BUSINESS1.2 BillionOverweightHungry 900 Million8. EXPONENTIAL ENVIRONMENTAL TRENDS9. THE BIG QUESTIONCan we have economic growth and tackle poverty and sustainability at the same time?10. SHIFTING TO A SUSTAINABLE FOOD FUTURE?1 SHIFTING TO A SUSTAINABLE FOOD FUTURE?Image: istockphoto11. The world needs to close the food gap69%INCREASE IN FOOD CALORIES TO FEED 9.6 BILLION BY 2050Source: WRI analysis based on Alexandratos, N., and J. Bruinsma. 2012. World agriculture towards 2030/2050: The 2012 revision. Rome: FAO.12. The world needs agriculture to support economic developmentSource: World Bank. 2012. World Development Indicators. Accessible at: (accessed December 13, 2012).13. The world needs to reduce agriculture’s impact on the environment70%Water withdrawals37% 24%of Earth’s landmassGreenhouse gas emissions (Photo: Oxfam International /Flickr)14. 32%Increased rate of annual yield improvement needed between now and 2050Source: WRI analysis based on Alexandratos, N., and J. Bruinsma. 2012. World agriculture towards 2030/2050: The 2012 revision. Rome: FAO.15. Most studies project net adverse impacts on crop yields due to climate change (3° C warmer world)Source: World Bank. 2010. World Development Report 2010: Development and Climate Change. Washington, DC: World Bank.16. Menu for a sustainable food future (preliminary) Consumption Production Sustainably increase crop yields Boost yields through attentive crop breeding Improve soil and water management Expand onto low-carbon degraded lands Sustainably increase “livestock” productivity Increase productivity of pasture and grazing lands Reduce then stabilize wild fish catch Increase productivity of aquacultureProduction methods Improve livestock feeding efficiency Increase the efficiency of fertilizer use Manage rice paddies to reduce emissionsReduce food loss and waste Shift to healthier diets Achieve replacement level fertility Reduce biofuel demand for food crops17. Reduce food loss and waste along the value chain (Percent of kcal lost or wasted)Note: Numbers may not sum to 100 due to rounding. Source: WRI analysis based on FAO. 2011. Global food losses and food waste—extent, causes and prevention. Rome: FAO.18. WHAT TO WATCH 1. Will global warming start to seriously affect yields? 2. Will the food loss and waste movement build momentum?19. SHIFTING TO A SUSTAINABLE FOOD FUTURE?WATER AT RISK?2 1 WATER AT RISK?Image: istockphoto20. WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM: WATER IS A GLOBAL RISK Water crises21. THREATS TO NATIONAL SECURITY Aqueduct maps used in 2011 National Intelligence Estimate on Water Security requested by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton22. WATER SCARCITY IS NEWS23. WATER SCARCITY WILL INTENSIFY People in absolute water scarcity1.8 BTens of millions will be displaced in arid, semi-arid regions202520221.2 B 2014Source: United Nations201824. IN TIMES OF SCARCITY: POOR PEOPLE GET SQUEEZED25. AQUEDUCT WATER RISK ATLAS26. WORLD’S LEADING WATER INFORMATION PLATFORM- 15,000 catchments - 12 indicators of water risk - All open data publicly available - Current estimates and future projections27. WATER39% of irrigated cropland in this region is located ON IRRIGATED AGRICULTURE STRESSin areas of water stress concern Baseline Water Stress in areas with Irrigated AgricultureNOW28. WATER STRESS ON IRRIGATED AGRICULTURE 2025 Change in Water Stress by 2025 in areas with Irrigated Agriculture (IPCC Scenario A1B)29. WATER STRESS AND POWER PLANT CAPACITY NOW Baseline Water Stress and Power Plants30. would see water stress grow 2 to 8 times worse by 2025WATER STRESS AND POWER PLANT CAPACITY 2025 Change in Water Stress by 2025 and Power Plants (IPCC Scenario A1B)31. WHAT TO WATCH 1. Will water shortages begin to seriously affect agriculture output and power production?2. Will governments and companies take aggressive action to reduce water risks?32. SHIFTING TO A SUSTAINABLE FOOD FUTURE?WATER AT RISK?THE YEAR OF CITIES: HOW WILL THEY GROW?3 1 THE YEAR OF CITIES: HOW WILL THEY GROW?Image: istockphoto33. CITIES ARE BOOMING274,000 people added to cities each day for next 30 years Image: Harvey Barrison; Source: UN-Habitat34. AND URBAN GROWTH IS SPEEDING UPTime required to reach 2 million: Rome, Italy Vienna, Austria Vancouver, B.C. Shenzhen, China2000 years 400 years 115 years 20 years35. CITIES ARE ECONOMIC DRIVERS65%global GDP growth in major citiesImage: istockphoto; Source: McKinsey and Company36. URBAN POOR LACK ACCESS TO BASIC SERVICES37. BUT, CITIES BRING CHALLENGES• 75% of GHG emissions come from cities • 1.3 million people die prematurely due to urban air pollutionImage: Flickr/PauloFehlauer; Sources: UN-Habitat, UNFCCC, WHO38. BUT, CITIES BRING CHALLENGES$1 trillion Projected cost to coastal cities without adaptation39. THIS?Image: Flickr/RodrigoSolon40. OR THIS?Image: Flikr/Andreas41. CITIES: PROBLEM OR SOLUTION? Per capita emissions of CO2 equivalent (2011)Source: Cai et al. 2013, Hoornweg et al. 2011, Olivier et al. 201242. WHAT TO WATCH 1. Which way will cities in Asia grow - up or out?Image: Flickr/DylanPassmore43. 4 1 RESTORATION: A 2 BILLION HECTARE OPPORTUNITY?Image: Flickr/USAID Kenya44. FORESTS UNDER PRESSURE50 Image: WRI; Source: Hansen et al.2013, WRIsoccer fields lost each minute45. BUT, THERE’S HOPE…2bn Source: Global Partnership on Forest Landscape Restorationhectares with opportunities for forest landscape restoration46. SOUTH KOREA: RESTORATION INTO FORESTS 19602000Image: WRI47. NIGER: RESTORATION INTO AGROFORESTRYPre-1990sImage: WRIToday48. THE BONN CHALLENGE150m hectares under restoration by 2020Image: Flickr/CIFOR; Source: WRI49. BONN CHALLENGE: BENEFITS150m RESTORED HECTARES • $84 billion in economic benefits per year • 1 gigatons of CO2e stored per year • Biodiversity, cultural and other benefitsImage: Flickr/CIFOR; ource: IUCN50. A GROWING MOVEMENTBRAZIL - PACTO COSTA RICA EL SALVADOR (1m ha) (1m ha) (1m ha)Source: WRIRWANDA (2m ha)USA (15m ha)51. WHAT TO WATCH 1. Will more countries make commitments when they meet in June 2014?2. Will a new global movement for restoration emerge?Image:52. SHIFTING TO A SUSTAINABLE FOOD FUTURE?WATER AT RISK?THE YEAR OF CITIES: HOW WILL THEY GROW?RESTORATION: A 2 BILLION HECTARE OPPORTUNITY?SUSTAINABLE PALM OIL: A NEW ERA?5 1 SUSTAINABLE PALM OIL: A NEW ERA?Image: istockphoto53. PALM OIL: A MAJOR CROP370% increase in palm oil production in 20 yearsImage: Flickr/carsten_tb; Source: FAO54. PALM OIL: A MAJOR CROP50%of grocery store products contain palm oilSource: National Geographic 201355. SEIZING WIN-WINS: REDUCING DEFORESTATIONImage: WRI56. SEIZING WIN-WINS: REDUCING DEFORESTATIONImage: WRI57. SEIZING WIN-WINS: REDUCING DEFORESTATIONImage: WRI58. SEIZING WIN-WINS: REDUCING DEFORESTATIONImage: WRI59. A NEW APPROACH60. A NEW APPROACH“There is a strong and rapidly growing demand for traceable, deforestation-free palm oil, and we intend to meet it as a core element of our growth strategy.” –Kuok Khoon Hong, CEO of WilmarSource: Wilmar Press Release 201361. SPOTLIGHT ON FORESTS: GLOBAL FOREST WATCH62. SPOTLIGHT ON FORESTS: GLOBAL FOREST WATCH63. SPOTLIGHT ON FORESTS: GLOBAL FOREST WATCH64. SPOTLIGHT ON FORESTS: GLOBAL FOREST WATCH65. SPOTLIGHT ON FORESTS: GLOBAL FOREST WATCH66. SPOTLIGHT ON FORESTS: GLOBAL FOREST WATCH67. SPOTLIGHT ON FORESTS: GLOBAL FOREST WATCHTESSO NILO NATIONAL PARK68. SPOTLIGHT ON FORESTS: GLOBAL FOREST WATCHImage: Jufri/ Greenpeace69. WHAT TO WATCH 1. Will better information expedite the shift to sustainable palm oil? 2. Will other industries follow?Image: istockphoto70. SHIFTING TO A SUSTAINABLE FOOD FUTURE?WATER AT RISK?THE YEAR OF CITIES: HOW WILL THEY GROW?RESTORATION: A 2 BILLION HECTARE OPPORTUNITY?6 CHINA: CLEARING THE AIR?Image: istockphotoSUSTAINABLE PALM OIL: A NEW ERA?CHINA: CLEARING THE AIR?71. 2013: A YEAR OF POLLUTION189 days of high pollution in Beijing in 2013Image: Flickr/Leniners72. POPULAR UNREST3mmentions of “PM 2.5” on SINA WEIBO, Jan 2013Image: Flickr/Robert Moposang; Source: The Guardian73. A DRIVER OF POLLUTION50% Image: WRI; source: EIA 2013global coal consumed by China74. TAKING ACTION: AIR$277bn budgeted for anti-pollution measures in the next 5 yearsImage: WRI; Source: China Daily75. TAKING ACTION: CUTTING COALBan on New Coal Plants in Beijing, Shanghai, GuangzhouImage: Flickr/Jonathan Kos-Read; source: ChinaFAQs76. TAKING ACTION: ENFORCEMENT8 cities in China fined by provincial government for air pollutionImage: Flickr/Bert Van Djik; Source: Xinhua77. TAKING ACTION: MORE RENEWABLES12 GWsolar capacity added in China, the record for any country in a single yearImage: Wikimedia: Bloomberg78. WHAT TO WATCH 1. A tipping point on air pollution? 2. More progress to rein in coal? 3. Will new renewables outpace fossil fuels?Image: WRI79. SHIFTING TO A SUSTAINABLE FOOD FUTURE?WATER AT RISK?THE YEAR OF CITIES: HOW WILL THEY GROW?7 1 UN SUMMIT: MOMENTUM ON CLIMATE?Image: Wikimedia istockphotoRESTORATION: A 2 BILLION HECTARE OPPORTUNITY?SUSTAINABLE PALM OIL: A NEW ERA?CHINA: CLEARING THE AIR?UN SUMMIT: MOMENTUM ON CLIMATE?80. NEARLY 100 COUNTRIES WITH GHG GOALSSource: UNFCCC81. THE BRUTAL ARITHMETIC200 Years it took us to use half the world’s carbon budget30 Years it will take us to use the other half at current rate To stay within 2° of warming, emissions should peak by202082. UNBURNABLE CARBON 3000Coal 65%2500Two thirds of reserves “unburnable”Gt CO2200015001000Oil 22% 500Gas 13% 0Budget Source: Rystad Energy, Carbon TrackerProven reserves83. EUROPEAN COMMISSION POST-2020 PROPOSAL40%Reduction in GHG emissions by 2030 below 1990 levels27% Image: istockphoto; Source: UCSRenewable energy across EU by 203084. US POST-2020 TARGET17% Image: Flickr/The White House; Source: White Houseemissions reduction by 202085. IPCC REPORTS – MARCH & APRILImage: Flickr/Gavin Golden86. NEW CLIMATE ECONOMY – SEPTEMBERImage: WRI87. CLIMATE CHANGE SUMMIT – SEPTEMBERImage: Flickr/UNClimateChange88. PATHWAY TO PARISImage: Wikimedia89. We are at a pivotal momentHyogo Framework for Action on disaster risk reductionConference on Financing for DevelopmentPost-2015 Development FrameworkUNFCCC COP 21201590. WHAT TO WATCH 1. Will growing evidence spur public pressure? 2. Will a mid-term US strategy emerge? 3. Will the EU continue to lead?Image: Flickr/Philip Roeland91. SHIFTING TO A SUSTAINABLE FOOD FUTURE?WATER AT RISK?THE YEAR OF CITIES: HOW WILL THEY GROW?RESTORATION: A 2 BILLION HECTARE OPPORTUNITY?SUSTAINABLE PALM OIL: A NEW ERA?18 A BILLION VOTERS: WHICH DIRECTION WILL THEY CHOOSE? Image: istockphotoCHINA: CLEARING THE AIR?UN SUMMIT: MOMENTUM ON CLIMATE?A BILLION VOTERS: WHICH DIRECTION WILL THEY CHOOSE?92. A MOMENT OF OPPORTUNITY• 3 of the 4 largest democracies to elect heads of government • 25% of world’s population • 40% of the global poor Image: istockphoto93. ELECTIONS: BRAZIL136m voters in BrazilImage: Flickr/Dilma Rousseff; Source: IDEA94. ELECTIONS: INDIA780m voters in IndiaImage: Flickr/London Summit; Source: IDEA95. ELECTIONS: INDONESIA160m voters in IndonesiaImage: Flickr/World Economic Forum; Source: IDEA96. ELECTIONS: EUROPEAN UNIONImage: Flickr.EEAS97. U.S. MIDTERM ELECTIONSImage: istockphoto98. ELECTIONS MATTERImage: Wikipedia99. WHAT TO WATCH 1. Which way will these elections go? 2. What will the results tell us about the future of economic growth, poverty and sustainability?Image: Flickr/Al_Jazeera_English100. 1TOWARDS A SUSTAINABLE FOOD FUTURE2WATER AT RISK?3THE YEAR OF CITIES: HOW WILL THEY GROW RESTORATION: A 2 BILLION HECTARE OPPORTUNITY?45SUSTAINABLE PALM OIL: A NEW ERA?6CHINA: CLEARING THE AIR?7UN SUMMIT: MOMENTUM ON CLIMATE?8A BILLION VOTERS: WHICH DIRECTION WILL THEY CHOOSE?
- 1.1FEATURINGManish Bapna Executive Vice President, WRI Image: Flickr/NA.dir
What stories will impact people and the planet in 2014? On 18 February 2014, Executive Vice President and Managing Director Manish Bapna offered his perspectives on the major…